Italy - HOI4 - Is Stalin Bluffing?

I ask because he already has war goals on Japan and has done nothing. I have to prepare for the worst though. On 24 Jan 1942 I assign my air wings to missions and theatres.
The Soviet focus finishes in 24 days. I should be prepared by then.
I need to adjust my imports, especially all items from the Soviet Union.
There is plenty of oil available in the USA.
Goodbye Russian oil...
11 Feb 1942: My Eastern Front army is almost at its destination.
14 Feb 1942: and most of my other forces are already at the border.
17 Feb 1942 and Soviet diplomacy appears to be unchanged.
20 Feb 1942: The Soviets have begun the focus Baltic Security. They receive claims on territory in each of the three Baltic States. With a claim war goals are received much faster.
09 Mar 1942: Russia appears to have chosen Latvia as its first target on 20 Apr 1942.
13 Mar 1942: I have equipment shortages which need to be addressed.
 I move 3MFs to artillery production.
That'll take more than 3 months but my hands are tied. The Soviets have a large air force so I can't afford to reduce my aircraft production.
I convert three more armoured divisions - I have the equipment,
15 Mar 1942: Democracy is slowly gaining in Free France.
16 Mar 1942 and my focus Atlantic Fleet is completed.
 I guess that Marines and Landing Craft may be useful one day.
22 Mar 1942 and the Soviets have declared war on Latvia - that's a month earlier than it should be!!!
Latvia wants to join our faction.
So let's send the invitation.
They accept..
 ...then I request that we join their war.
They accept so Italy is at war again. This time we are fighting a defensive war.
So I invite Bulgaria  and Turkey to be allies.
They have both accepted.
This won't be Blitzkrieg like the previous conflicts but I need to gain as much territory as possible as quickly as possible.

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